Thursday, June 11, 2026
Group A
Mexico
2 – 0
South Africa
2 : 0
TIP
Pre-tournament
Friday, June 12, 2026
Group A
South Korea
2 – 1
Czechia
1 : 1
TIP
Pre-tournament
Group B
Canada
1 – 1
Bosnia-Herzegovina
1 : 0
TIP
Pre-tournament
Saturday, June 13, 2026 TODAY
Group B
Qatar
vs
Switzerland
0 : 2
TIP
Group C
Brazil
vs
Morocco
1 : 0
TIP
Group D
United States
vs
Paraguay
1 : 1
TIP
Sunday, June 14, 2026
Group C
Haiti
vs
Scotland
0 : 1
TIP
Group D
Australia
vs
Turkey
0 : 1
TIP
Group E
Germany
vs
Curaçao
2 : 0
TIP
Group E
Ivory Coast
vs
Ecuador
0 : 1
TIP
Group F
Netherlands
vs
Japan
1 : 1
TIP
Monday, June 15, 2026
Group F
Sweden
vs
Tunisia
1 : 1
TIP
Group G
Belgium
vs
Egypt
1 : 0
TIP
Group H
Spain
vs
Cape Verde Islands
2 : 0
TIP
Group H
Saudi Arabia
vs
Uruguay
0 : 2
TIP
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Group G
Iran
vs
New Zealand
1 : 0
TIP
Group I
France
vs
Senegal
1 : 0
TIP
Group I
Iraq
vs
Norway
0 : 2
TIP
Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Group J
Argentina
vs
Algeria
2 : 0
TIP
Group J
Austria
vs
Jordan
1 : 0
TIP
Group K
Portugal
vs
Congo DR
2 : 0
TIP
Group L
England
vs
Croatia
1 : 1
TIP
Group L
Ghana
vs
Panama
0 : 1
TIP
Thursday, June 18, 2026
Group A
Czechia
vs
South Africa
1 : 0
TIP
Pre-tournament
Group B
Switzerland
vs
Bosnia-Herzegovina
2 : 0
TIP
Pre-tournament
Group B
Canada
vs
Qatar
2 : 0
TIP
Group K
Uzbekistan
vs
Colombia
0 : 1
TIP
Friday, June 19, 2026
Group A
Mexico
vs
South Korea
1 : 0
TIP
Pre-tournament
Group C
Scotland
vs
Morocco
1 : 1
TIP
Group D
United States
vs
Australia
1 : 1
TIP
Saturday, June 20, 2026
Group C
Brazil
vs
Haiti
2 : 0
TIP
Group D
Turkey
vs
Paraguay
1 : 1
TIP
Group E
Germany
vs
Ivory Coast
1 : 0
TIP
Group F
Netherlands
vs
Sweden
1 : 0
TIP
Sunday, June 21, 2026
Group E
Ecuador
vs
Curaçao
2 : 0
TIP
Group F
Tunisia
vs
Japan
0 : 2
TIP
Group G
Belgium
vs
Iran
1 : 0
TIP
Group H
Spain
vs
Saudi Arabia
2 : 0
TIP
Group H
Uruguay
vs
Cape Verde Islands
2 : 0
TIP
Monday, June 22, 2026
Group G
New Zealand
vs
Egypt
0 : 1
TIP
Group I
France
vs
Iraq
2 : 0
TIP
Group J
Argentina
vs
Austria
2 : 0
TIP
Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Group I
Norway
vs
Senegal
1 : 1
TIP
Group J
Jordan
vs
Algeria
1 : 1
TIP
Group K
Portugal
vs
Uzbekistan
2 : 0
TIP
Group L
England
vs
Ghana
2 : 0
TIP
Group L
Panama
vs
Croatia
0 : 1
TIP
Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Group B
Switzerland
vs
Canada
1 : 1
TIP
Pre-tournament
Group B
Bosnia-Herzegovina
vs
Qatar
1 : 0
TIP
Pre-tournament
Group C
Morocco
vs
Haiti
2 : 0
TIP
Group C
Scotland
vs
Brazil
0 : 1
TIP
Group K
Colombia
vs
Congo DR
2 : 0
TIP
Thursday, June 25, 2026
Group A
Czechia
vs
Mexico
0 : 1
TIP
Pre-tournament
Group A
South Africa
vs
South Korea
0 : 2
TIP
Pre-tournament
Group E
Ecuador
vs
Germany
1 : 1
TIP
Group E
Curaçao
vs
Ivory Coast
0 : 1
TIP
Group F
Tunisia
vs
Netherlands
0 : 2
TIP
Group F
Japan
vs
Sweden
1 : 0
TIP
Friday, June 26, 2026
Group D
Turkey
vs
United States
1 : 0
TIP
Group D
Paraguay
vs
Australia
1 : 1
TIP
Group I
Norway
vs
France
0 : 1
TIP
Group I
Senegal
vs
Iraq
1 : 0
TIP
Saturday, June 27, 2026
Group G
New Zealand
vs
Belgium
0 : 2
TIP
Group G
Egypt
vs
Iran
1 : 1
TIP
Group H
Uruguay
vs
Spain
0 : 1
TIP
Group H
Cape Verde Islands
vs
Saudi Arabia
1 : 1
TIP
Group K
Colombia
vs
Portugal
1 : 1
TIP
Group K
Congo DR
vs
Uzbekistan
1 : 1
TIP
Group L
Panama
vs
England
0 : 2
TIP
Group L
Croatia
vs
Ghana
2 : 0
TIP
Sunday, June 28, 2026
Group J
Jordan
vs
Argentina
0 : 2
TIP
Group J
Algeria
vs
Austria
1 : 1
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
Spain
vs
Ivory Coast
2 : 0
TIP
Monday, June 29, 2026
Round of 32
Projected
Argentina
vs
Egypt
2 : 0
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
France
vs
Czechia
2 : 0
TIP
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Round of 32
Projected
England
vs
Panama
2 : 0
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
Brazil
vs
Algeria
1 : 0
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
Portugal
vs
Iran
1 : 0
TIP
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Round of 32
Projected
Colombia
vs
Scotland
1 : 0
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
Mexico
vs
South Korea
1 : 0
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
Netherlands
vs
Morocco
1 : 0
TIP
Thursday, July 2, 2026
Round of 32
Projected
Ecuador
vs
Austria
2 : 1
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
Germany
vs
Paraguay
2 : 1
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
Norway
vs
Canada
2 : 1
TIP
Friday, July 3, 2026
Round of 32
Projected
Croatia
vs
United States
2 : 1
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
Turkey
vs
Senegal
2 : 1
TIP
Round of 32
Projected
Japan
vs
Switzerland
2 : 1
TIP
Saturday, July 4, 2026
Round of 32
Projected
Belgium
vs
Uruguay
2 : 1
TIP
Round of 16
Projected
Spain
vs
Argentina
2 : 1
TIP
Round of 16
Projected
France
vs
England
2 : 1
TIP
Sunday, July 5, 2026
Round of 16
Projected
Brazil
vs
Portugal
2 : 1
TIP
Monday, July 6, 2026
Round of 16
Projected
Colombia
vs
Mexico
2 : 1
TIP
Round of 16
Projected
Netherlands
vs
Ecuador
2 : 1
TIP
Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Round of 16
Projected
Germany
vs
Norway
2 : 1
TIP
Round of 16
Projected
Croatia
vs
Turkey
2 : 1
TIP
Round of 16
Projected
Japan
vs
Belgium
2 : 1
TIP
Thursday, July 9, 2026
Quarter-Final
Projected
Spain
vs
France
2 : 1
TIP
Friday, July 10, 2026
Quarter-Final
Projected
Brazil
vs
Colombia
2 : 1
TIP
Saturday, July 11, 2026
Quarter-Final
Projected
Netherlands
vs
Germany
2 : 1
TIP
Sunday, July 12, 2026
Quarter-Final
Projected
Croatia
vs
Japan
2 : 1
TIP
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Semi-Final
Projected
Spain
vs
Brazil
1 : 0
TIP
Wednesday, July 15, 2026
Semi-Final
Projected
Netherlands
vs
Croatia
2 : 1
TIP
Sunday, July 19, 2026
Final
Projected
Spain
vs
Netherlands
1 : 0
TIP
📋 Projected Group Winners
Expected standings based on Elo win probabilities.
Gold = projected group winner · Silver = runner-up · Grey = third place.
xPts = expected points over 3 group matches.
Group A
1
Mexico
6.3pt
2
South Korea
4.9pt
3
Czechia
3.7pt
4
South Africa
1.7pt
Group B
1
Switzerland
6.4pt
2
Canada
5.6pt
3
Bosnia-Herzegovina
3.3pt
4
Qatar
1.5pt
Group C
1
Brazil
6.4pt
2
Morocco
4.6pt
3
Scotland
4.1pt
4
Haiti
1.6pt
Group D
1
Turkey
5.1pt
2
Paraguay
4.2pt
3
United States
3.6pt
4
Australia
3.5pt
Group E
1
Ecuador
6.1pt
2
Germany
6.1pt
3
Ivory Coast
3.5pt
4
Curaçao
1.1pt
Group F
1
Netherlands
5.9pt
2
Japan
5.4pt
3
Sweden
3.1pt
4
Tunisia
2.2pt
Group G
1
Belgium
6.1pt
2
Iran
4.6pt
3
Egypt
3.7pt
4
New Zealand
2.2pt
Group H
1
Spain
7.6pt
2
Uruguay
5.2pt
3
Cape Verde Islands
2.1pt
4
Saudi Arabia
2.1pt
Group I
1
France
6.4pt
2
Norway
4.7pt
3
Senegal
4.1pt
4
Iraq
1.5pt
Group J
1
Argentina
7.1pt
2
Austria
4.0pt
3
Algeria
3.3pt
4
Jordan
2.3pt
Group K
1
Portugal
5.9pt
2
Colombia
5.8pt
3
Uzbekistan
2.8pt
4
Congo DR
2.2pt
Group L
1
England
6.6pt
2
Croatia
5.4pt
3
Panama
3.4pt
4
Ghana
1.3pt
🗓️ Projected Knockout Bracket
Projected group results feed the knockout bracket.
Seeded by Elo strength (1st vs. 32nd, 2nd vs. 31st…).
Score shown is the most likely Poisson result; green highlights the projected winner.
Round of 32 16 matches
Spain
2 : 0
Ivory Coast
86%
· 8%
·
6%
Argentina
2 : 0
Egypt
83%
· 10%
·
7%
France
2 : 0
Czechia
79%
· 11%
·
10%
England
2 : 0
Panama
73%
· 14%
·
13%
Brazil
1 : 0
Algeria
65%
· 17%
·
18%
Portugal
1 : 0
Iran
64%
· 17%
·
18%
Colombia
1 : 0
Scotland
62%
· 18%
·
20%
Mexico
1 : 0
South Korea
59%
· 19%
·
22%
Netherlands
1 : 0
Morocco
52%
· 22%
·
26%
Ecuador
2 : 1
Austria
50%
· 23%
·
27%
Germany
2 : 1
Paraguay
49%
· 23%
·
28%
Norway
2 : 1
Canada
46%
· 24%
·
30%
Croatia
2 : 1
United States
45%
· 25%
·
31%
Turkey
2 : 1
Senegal
43%
· 26%
·
32%
Japan
2 : 1
Switzerland
38%
· 27%
·
35%
Belgium
2 : 1
Uruguay
36%
· 28%
·
36%
Round of 16 8 matches
Spain
2 : 1
Argentina
42%
· 26%
·
33%
France
2 : 1
England
41%
· 26%
·
33%
Brazil
2 : 1
Portugal
36%
· 28%
·
36%
Colombia
2 : 1
Mexico
39%
· 27%
·
34%
Netherlands
2 : 1
Ecuador
37%
· 28%
·
35%
Germany
2 : 1
Norway
38%
· 27%
·
35%
Croatia
2 : 1
Turkey
36%
· 28%
·
36%
Japan
2 : 1
Belgium
38%
· 27%
·
35%
Quarter-Finals 4 matches
Spain
2 : 1
France
48%
· 23%
·
28%
Brazil
2 : 1
Colombia
37%
· 28%
·
35%
Netherlands
2 : 1
Germany
38%
· 27%
·
35%
Croatia
2 : 1
Japan
37%
· 28%
·
36%
Semi-Finals 2 matches
Spain
1 : 0
Brazil
58%
· 20%
·
22%
Netherlands
2 : 1
Croatia
41%
· 26%
·
33%
Final 1 matches
Spain
1 : 0
Netherlands
63%
· 18%
·
19%
Projected Champion
Spain
🔍 Match Insights
Biggest upsets (winner had the lower predicted probability) and host-nation results.
Updated after each batch of results.
🎯 Biggest Upsets
No upsets recorded yet.
🏟️ Host Nation Advantage Monitor
Pre-tournament model forecast:
USA 0.9 exp. W (3 matches) ·
Mexico 1.9 exp. W (3 matches) ·
Canada 1.6 exp. W (3 matches)
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts | Exp. W | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| 2 | Mexico | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.79 | +0.21 |
| 3 | Canada | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.59 | -0.59 |
🔥 Group Stage — Elo Strength Map
Each of the 72 group-stage matches plotted by Elo advantage (home team minus away team) versus
predicted home-win probability. Points coloured by group. Hover for match details.
📈 Tournament Progression — Top 12 Survival Curves
Probability of advancing through each stage (Monte Carlo simulation, 10,000 runs).
Based on World Football Elo ratings at tournament start — updates as real results come in.
🏆 World Cup Prediction
| # | Team | Group | R16 | Final | WC 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 100% | 81% | 34.5% | 24.2% |
| 2 | Argentina | 99% | 76% | 26.8% | 17.3% |
| 3 | France | 97% | 70% | 18.9% | 10.4% |
| 4 | England | 98% | 67% | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| 5 | Brazil | 97% | 63% | 10.7% | 4.9% |
| 6 | Portugal | 96% | 61% | 10.3% | 4.7% |
| 7 | Colombia | 95% | 61% | 9.8% | 4.7% |
| 8 | Ecuador | 98% | 57% | 7.1% | 3.0% |
| 9 | Netherlands | 95% | 57% | 7.1% | 2.8% |
| 10 | Germany | 97% | 56% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| 11 | Mexico | 97% | 55% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| 12 | Croatia | 95% | 53% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| 13 | Japan | 93% | 51% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| 14 | Norway | 89% | 50% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| 15 | Turkey | 87% | 48% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| 16 | Switzerland | 98% | 52% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| 17 | Belgium | 96% | 51% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| 18 | Uruguay | 94% | 50% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 19 | Senegal | 82% | 40% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 20 | Morocco | 87% | 39% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 21 | Canada | 95% | 41% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 22 | Austria | 79% | 36% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 23 | Paraguay | 75% | 34% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 24 | South Korea | 88% | 35% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 25 | United States | 63% | 26% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 26 | Scotland | 78% | 31% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 27 | Iran | 83% | 32% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 28 | Algeria | 62% | 25% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 29 | Australia | 55% | 22% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 30 | Czechia | 67% | 21% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 31 | Panama | 68% | 24% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Sweden | 55% | 18% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 33 | Egypt | 64% | 20% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 34 | Ivory Coast | 62% | 19% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Uzbekistan | 50% | 17% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 48% | 10% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 37 | Tunisia | 26% | 7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 38 | South Africa | 15% | 2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Qatar | 11% | 1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Haiti | 14% | 2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Curaçao | 6% | 1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 42 | New Zealand | 24% | 4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Cape Verde Islands | 21% | 5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Saudi Arabia | 20% | 4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Iraq | 14% | 3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Jordan | 30% | 9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Congo DR | 26% | 7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Ghana | 10% | 2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🔭 External Forecast — Klement 2026
Panmure Liberum publishes a pre-tournament winner prediction using socioeconomic indicators (GDP per capita, population, climate) and FIFA rankings. 3/3 correct (2014–2022)
2026 pick: Netherlands beats Spain (SF, pens) and Portugal in the Final. Biggest surprise: Japan beats Brazil (R32). source →
| Team | Klement pick | Model WC % |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 🏆 Champion | 2.8% |
| Portugal | Runner-up | 4.7% |
| Spain | Semi-final | 24.2% |
| England | Semi-final | 7.3% |
| France | Quarter-final | 10.4% |
| Argentina | Quarter-final | 17.3% |
| Japan | Quarter-final ⚡ | 1.8% |
⚡ Klement's biggest predicted upset: Japan beats Brazil in the Round of 32. Spain reaches the SF but loses on penalties to the Netherlands. Model gives Spain a 24.2% WC chance vs. 2.8% for the Netherlands.
📊 Current Elo Rankings
| # | Team | Elo | Δ Total | Δ Week | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 2157 | — | — | |
| 2 | Argentina | 2115 | — | — | |
| 3 | France | 2063 | — | — | |
| 4 | England | 2024 | — | — | |
| 5 | Brazil | 1991 | — | — | |
| 6 | Portugal | 1989 | — | — | |
| 7 | Colombia | 1982 | — | — | |
| 8 | Netherlands | 1948 | — | — | |
| 9 | Ecuador | 1938 | — | — | |
| 10 | Germany | 1932 | — | — | |
| 11 | Norway | 1914 | — | — | |
| 12 | Croatia | 1912 | — | — | |
| 13 | Turkey | 1911 | — | — | |
| 14 | Japan | 1906 | — | — | |
| 15 | Belgium | 1894 | — | — | |
| 16 | Uruguay | 1892 | — | — | |
| 17 | Switzerland | 1891 | — | — | |
| 18 | Mexico | 1884 | +3 | — | |
| 19 | Senegal | 1860 | — | — | |
| 20 | Paraguay | 1834 | — | — | |
| 21 | Austria | 1830 | — | — | |
| 22 | Morocco | 1827 | — | — | |
| 23 | South Korea | 1799 | +13 | — | |
| 24 | Scotland | 1782 | — | — | |
| 25 | Canada | 1778 | -10 | — | |
| 26 | Australia | 1777 | — | — | |
| 27 | Algeria | 1772 | — | — | |
| 28 | Iran | 1772 | — | — | |
| 29 | Panama | 1730 | — | — | |
| 30 | United States | 1726 | — | — | |
| 31 | Uzbekistan | 1714 | — | — | |
| 32 | Sweden | 1712 | — | — | |
| 33 | Czechia | 1699 | -13 | — | |
| 34 | Egypt | 1696 | — | — | |
| 35 | Ivory Coast | 1695 | — | — | |
| 36 | Jordan | 1680 | — | — | |
| 37 | Congo DR | 1652 | — | — | |
| 38 | Tunisia | 1628 | — | — | |
| 39 | Iraq | 1607 | — | — | |
| 40 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1605 | +10 | — | |
| 41 | Cape Verde Islands | 1578 | — | — | |
| 42 | Saudi Arabia | 1576 | — | — | |
| 43 | New Zealand | 1562 | — | — | |
| 44 | Haiti | 1548 | — | — | |
| 45 | Ghana | 1510 | — | — | |
| 46 | South Africa | 1508 | -3 | — | |
| 47 | Curaçao | 1434 | — | — | |
| 48 | Qatar | 1421 | — | — |
✔ Elo DQ Check 48 teams vs eloratings.net · MAD 1.1 pts
Teams compared: 48
Mean abs. delta: 1.1 pts
Max delta: 13 pts
Alerts (≥30 pts): 0
| Team | Our Elo | eloratings.net | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia | 1699 | 1712 | -13 |
| South Korea | 1799 | 1786 | +13 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1605 | 1616 | -11 |
| Canada | 1778 | 1767 | +11 |
| Mexico | 1884 | 1881 | +3 |
| South Africa | 1508 | 1511 | -3 |
| Algeria | 1772 | 1772 | +0 |
| Argentina | 2115 | 2115 | +0 |
| Australia | 1777 | 1777 | +0 |
| Austria | 1830 | 1830 | +0 |
| Belgium | 1894 | 1894 | +0 |
| Brazil | 1991 | 1991 | +0 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 1578 | 1578 | +0 |
| Colombia | 1982 | 1982 | +0 |
| Congo DR | 1652 | 1652 | +0 |
Showing top 15 by absolute delta · 48 total teams compared
⚙️ How the Model Learns
Five parameters self-adjust nightly after each batch of results, using a small gradient step (PDCA loop).
The grey tick on each bar marks the starting default — a shift means the tournament data is pulling the model away from the prior.
Draw coefficient
0.28
0.120.4
Peak draw probability when teams are equally matched
Draw exponent
0.6
0.31.2
How quickly draw probability falls as Elo gap widens
Host bonus scale
1.0
0.31.8
Multiplier on all three host-nation Elo bonuses (USA/MEX/CAN)
λ goals (baseline)
1.25
0.82.5
Expected goals per team at equal Elo strength
α strength
0.9
0.32.0
How much Elo gap amplifies the predicted goal split
ECE
0.218
Expected calibration error
(lower = better; 0 = perfect)
(lower = better; 0 = perfect)
Net bias
+0.000
+ = overconfident
– = underconfident
– = underconfident
Draw rate
33%
Actual vs predicted
21%
Goals / team
1.17
Actual vs λ
1.38
Matches used
3
Completed WC matches
Reliability Diagram (Calibration Chart)
Bars = actual outcome frequency per predicted-probability bucket. Line = model's mean predicted probability.
A perfectly calibrated model has bars that match the line everywhere.
📐 Running Brier Score
Mean squared probability error across all completed matches — lower is better. The dashed red line marks 0.667, the score a random 33%/33%/33% model achieves on every match. Staying below it means the model adds information. Updated nightly.
Running avg after 3 matches: 0.487 · Random baseline: 0.667
⚽ Score Distribution — Predicted vs Actual
Predicted: Poisson tipp frequency across all 72 fixtures. Actual: results from 3 completed matches. Scores above 3 are capped at 3. Sorted by goal difference — home-favourable left, away-favourable right.
🎯 Goals per Team — Predicted vs Actual
Home + away counted separately. Predicted across 72 fixtures;
actual from 3 completed matches.
⚖️ Goal Difference — Predicted vs Actual
Positive = home win, negative = away win, 0 = draw. Capped at ±3.
Actual from 3 completed matches.
📊 Predicted Scoreline Types by Stage
How the model's predicted scorelines change as the tournament progresses. In the group stage, a wide range of results is expected — including draws. By the Round of 16 and beyond, the field has levelled: Elo gaps narrow, draws are impossible, and the tie-break pushes nearly every match towards a 2:1 result.
📡 Model & Data Drift Monitor
Data drift — the tournament's actual statistics (goals per match, draw rate, host-nation results) diverging from the model's built-in assumptions. Model drift — the five PDCA parameters shifting from their defaults in response. The chart tracks each parameter's percentage deviation from its starting value, updated nightly. A flat line means the assumption held. A rising or falling line means the tournament data is pulling the model.
Parameter drift chart appears once the first PDCA update runs (minimum 8 completed matches required).
All six parameters are currently at their default values.
Confidence calibration — is the model over- or underconfident?
net_bias > 0: model assigns probabilities that are systematically too extreme (overconfident). net_bias < 0: probabilities are too flat (underconfident). The purple dashed line shows how elo_scale adjusts in response — rising elo_scale softens the probability curve.
Confidence calibration chart appears after the first PDCA update (minimum 8 completed matches required).